320 Lab / Sports archive
NBA320
Eric’s NBA predictions, 2015–16 to 2025–26.
Prediction score
How this is calculated
Average absolute difference between predicted and actual wins per team. Lower is better. Shortened seasons (2019–20 and 2020–21) are prorated to 82 games.
Season scores
What Δ means
Δ is that season’s prediction score (average |predicted − actual| wins). Lower is better. 2019–20 and 2020–21 are prorated to 82 games because of COVID-shortened schedules.
| Season | Avg Δ | Median Δ |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | 7.5 | 7.0 |
| 2024-25 | 8.7 | 7.5 |
| 2023-24 | 6.2 | 6.0 |
| 2022-23 | 6.5 | 6.5 |
| 2021-22 | 5.9 | 4.0 |
| 2020-21 | 7.6 | 5.6 |
| 2019-20 | 8.2 | 7.6 |
| 2018-19 | 6.9 | 7.0 |
| 2017-18 | 6.7 | 6.0 |
| 2016-17 | 4.6 | 5.0 |
| 2015-16 | 7.3 | 7.0 |
Team Bias Tracker
Averaged across 11 seasons, 2015–16 to 2025–26.
How to read the bars
Each bar is predicted wins minus actual wins. Positive (red) = overrated. Negative (blue) = underrated. Near 0 = on target. Use the season menu to look at one year or the full sample.
Bias columns
Average bias is predicted wins minus actual wins, averaged across the selected seasons. Positive (red) = overrated; negative (blue) = underrated. Seasons is how many years that team is in the sample.
| # | Team | Avg Bias | Median Bias | Bias Magnitude | Seasons |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Pelicans
|
6.8 | 7.0 | 10.5 | 11 |
| 2 |
Warriors
|
5.2 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 11 |
| 3 |
76ers
|
4.7 | 1.0 | 7.3 | 11 |
| 4 |
Mavericks
|
4.2 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 11 |
| 5 |
Grizzlies
|
3.7 | 1.0 | 9.2 | 11 |
| 6 |
Timberwolves
|
2.5 | 2.0 | 7.2 | 11 |
| 7 |
Rockets
|
2.3 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 11 |
| 8 |
Hawks
|
2.1 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 11 |
| 9 |
Wizards
|
1.7 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 11 |
| 10 |
Lakers
|
1.6 | 1.0 | 6.1 | 11 |
| 11 |
Suns
|
1.6 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 11 |
| 12 |
Clippers
|
1.1 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 11 |
| 13 |
Magic
|
1.0 | 3.0 | 8.3 | 11 |
| 14 |
Heat
|
0.9 | -1.0 | 4.9 | 11 |
| 15 |
Nets
|
0.5 | 2.0 | 6.8 | 11 |
| 16 |
Spurs
|
0.4 | -2.0 | 7.9 | 11 |
| 17 |
Pistons
|
0.3 | -2.0 | 7.8 | 11 |
| 18 |
Bucks
|
0.3 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 11 |
| 19 |
Raptors
|
-0.0 | -2.0 | 6.9 | 11 |
| 20 |
Jazz
|
-0.2 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 11 |
| 21 |
Bulls
|
-0.3 | -2.0 | 6.5 | 11 |
| 22 |
Kings
|
-0.7 | 0.0 | 5.7 | 11 |
| 23 |
Cavaliers
|
-1.3 | 0.0 | 5.5 | 11 |
| 24 |
Trail Blazers
|
-1.4 | 1.0 | 9.7 | 11 |
| 25 |
Celtics
|
-1.5 | -3.0 | 6.3 | 11 |
| 26 |
Nuggets
|
-1.9 | -2.0 | 3.7 | 11 |
| 27 |
Hornets
|
-2.3 | -1.0 | 7.2 | 11 |
| 28 |
Pacers
|
-3.3 | -4.0 | 9.0 | 11 |
| 29 |
Knicks
|
-3.8 | -2.0 | 5.3 | 11 |
| 30 |
Thunder
|
-6.0 | -5.0 | 8.5 | 11 |
Most Overrated
Pelicans
+6.8
Warriors
+5.2
76ers
+4.7
Mavericks
+4.2
Grizzlies
+3.7
Most Underrated
Thunder
-6.0
Knicks
-3.8
Pacers
-3.3
Hornets
-2.3
Nuggets
-1.9